diff --git a/crates/ty_python_semantic/resources/mdtest/promotion.md b/crates/ty_python_semantic/resources/mdtest/promotion.md
index d02b7750a8..4aed567d6d 100644
--- a/crates/ty_python_semantic/resources/mdtest/promotion.md
+++ b/crates/ty_python_semantic/resources/mdtest/promotion.md
@@ -306,6 +306,162 @@ segments: Mapping[str, Any] = {"start": (1, 2), "end": (3, 4, 5)}
 reveal_type(segments)  # revealed: dict[str, tuple[int, ...]]
 ```
 
+## Non-tuple elements do not block tuple-size promotion
+
+A non-literal tuple blocks tuple-size promotion because its shape must be preserved. A tuple nested
+inside a non-tuple element's type arguments does not:
+
+```toml
+[environment]
+python-version = "3.12"
+```
+
+```py
+class Box[T]: ...
+
+def _(box: Box[tuple[int, str]]) -> None:
+    # revealed: list[Box[tuple[int, str]] | tuple[int, ...]]
+    reveal_type([(1,), (1, 2), box])
+```
+
+A tuple in a callable's return type does not prevent promotion either:
+
+```py
+from collections.abc import Callable
+
+def _(callback: Callable[[], tuple[int, str]]) -> None:
+    # revealed: list[(() -> tuple[int, str]) | tuple[int, ...]]
+    reveal_type([(1,), (1, 2), callback])
+```
+
+Protocol members can also contain tuples without blocking promotion:
+
+```py
+from typing import Protocol
+
+class Proto(Protocol):
+    pair: tuple[int, str]
+
+def _(protocol: Proto) -> None:
+    reveal_type([(1,), (1, 2), protocol])  # revealed: list[Proto | tuple[int, ...]]
+```
+
+The same applies to `TypedDict` fields:
+
+```py
+from typing import TypedDict
+
+class Payload(TypedDict):
+    pair: tuple[int, str]
+
+def _(payload: Payload) -> None:
+    reveal_type([(1,), (1, 2), payload])  # revealed: list[Payload | tuple[int, ...]]
+```
+
+## Recursive members do not block tuple-size promotion
+
+Tuple-valued and recursive protocol members do not prevent neighboring tuple literals from being
+promoted:
+
+```toml
+[environment]
+python-version = "3.12"
+```
+
+```py
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from typing import Protocol
+
+class Recursive[T](Protocol):
+    next: Recursive[list[T]]
+    pair: tuple[int, str]
+
+def _(x: Recursive[int]) -> None:
+    reveal_type([(1,), (1, 2), x])  # revealed: list[Recursive[int] | tuple[int, ...]]
+```
+
+The same applies to recursive `TypedDict` fields:
+
+```py
+from typing import TypedDict
+
+class Payload[T](TypedDict):
+    child: Payload[list[T]]
+    pair: tuple[int, str]
+
+def _(x: Payload[int]) -> None:
+    reveal_type([(1,), (1, 2), x])  # revealed: list[Payload[int] | tuple[int, ...]]
+```
+
+## Type parameter declarations do not block tuple-size promotion
+
+A class parameter's bound or default does not describe the shape of instances of that class. A tuple
+in either declaration does not prevent promotion of neighboring tuple literals.
+
+```toml
+[environment]
+python-version = "3.13"
+```
+
+```py
+from typing import Generic, TypeVar
+
+T = TypeVar("T", bound=int | tuple[int, str])
+
+class Bounded(Generic[T]): ...
+
+def _(x: Bounded[int]) -> None:
+    # revealed: list[Bounded[int] | tuple[int, ...]]
+    reveal_type([(1,), (1, 2), x])
+```
+
+The supplied type argument also takes precedence over a default:
+
+```py
+U = TypeVar("U", default=tuple[int, str])
+
+class Defaulted(Generic[U]): ...
+
+def _(x: Defaulted[int]) -> None:
+    # revealed: list[Defaulted[int] | tuple[int, ...]]
+    reveal_type([(1,), (1, 2), x])
+```
+
+A default also does not fix the type of a value annotated with the type variable:
+
+```py
+def _(x: U) -> None:
+    reveal_type([(1,), (1, 2), x])  # revealed: list[U@_ | tuple[int, ...]]
+```
+
+## Tuple-size promotion uses alias values
+
+Tuple-size promotion inspects alias values. `Alias[Alias[str]]` resolves to `str`, so it does not
+block promotion:
+
+```toml
+[environment]
+python-version = "3.12"
+```
+
+```py
+type Alias[T] = T
+
+def _(x: Alias[Alias[str]]) -> None:
+    reveal_type([(1,), (1, 2), x])  # revealed: list[str | tuple[int, ...]]
+```
+
+Even a recursively specialized alias permits promotion when its value is a `list`:
+
+```py
+type Recursive[T] = list[Recursive[list[T]]]
+
+def _(x: Recursive[int]) -> None:
+    # revealed: list[list[Recursive[list[int]]] | tuple[int, ...]]
+    reveal_type([(1,), (1, 2), x])
+```
+
 ## Invariant and contravariant return types are promoted
 
 We promote in non-covariant position in the return type of a generic function, or constructor of a
diff --git a/crates/ty_python_semantic/resources/mdtest/unpacking.md b/crates/ty_python_semantic/resources/mdtest/unpacking.md
index 9c6318751a..1707e4877a 100644
--- a/crates/ty_python_semantic/resources/mdtest/unpacking.md
+++ b/crates/ty_python_semantic/resources/mdtest/unpacking.md
@@ -538,6 +538,23 @@ def expanded_tuples(values: list[str]):
     reveal_type(last)  # revealed: Literal[False]
 ```
 
+A protocol's tuple-valued member does not prevent promotion of tuple literals collected alongside
+the protocol instance.
+
+```py
+from typing import Protocol
+
+class P(Protocol):
+    pair: tuple[int, int]
+
+def _(value: P) -> None:
+    first, *rest = [0, (1,), (2, 3), value]
+    reveal_type(rest)  # revealed: list[P | tuple[int, ...]]
+
+    first, *rest = (0, (1,), (2, 3), value)
+    reveal_type(rest)  # revealed: list[P | tuple[int, ...]]
+```
+
 ### Starred expressions on the right-hand side
 
 A starred element can contribute an unknown number of values. The literal's AST length does not
diff --git a/crates/ty_python_semantic/src/types/newtype.rs b/crates/ty_python_semantic/src/types/newtype.rs
index 59267786cd..ab00e1d3f6 100644
--- a/crates/ty_python_semantic/src/types/newtype.rs
+++ b/crates/ty_python_semantic/src/types/newtype.rs
@@ -274,6 +274,18 @@ pub(crate) fn walk_newtype_instance_type<'db, V: visitor::TypeVisitor<'db> + ?Si
     }
 }
 
+/// Evaluate and visit the instance type of a newtype's base.
+///
+/// The caller must guard against recursive newtypes.
+pub(super) fn walk_newtype_base<'db, V: visitor::TypeVisitor<'db> + ?Sized>(
+    db: &'db dyn Db,
+    newtype: NewType<'db>,
+    visitor: &V,
+) {
+    let base = newtype.base(db);
+    visitor.visit_type(db, base.instance_type(db, visitor.program_environment()));
+}
+
 /// `typing.NewType` typically wraps a class type, but it can also wrap another newtype.
 #[derive(Clone, Copy, Debug, Eq, Hash, PartialEq, get_size2::GetSize, salsa::SalsaValue)]
 pub enum NewTypeBase<'db> {
diff --git a/crates/ty_python_semantic/src/types/tuple/promotion.rs b/crates/ty_python_semantic/src/types/tuple/promotion.rs
index fb556d29ac..e18a6ab414 100644
--- a/crates/ty_python_semantic/src/types/tuple/promotion.rs
+++ b/crates/ty_python_semantic/src/types/tuple/promotion.rs
@@ -1,13 +1,117 @@
 use crate::Db;
 use crate::ProgramEnvironment;
 use rustc_hash::FxHashSet;
+use std::cell::Cell;
 
 use ruff_python_ast::{self as ast};
 
+use crate::types::cyclic::{ActiveRecursionDetector, TypeIdentity};
+use crate::types::newtype::{NewType, walk_newtype_base};
 use crate::types::tuple::TupleSpec;
-use crate::types::typevar::BoundTypeVarIdentity;
-use crate::types::visitor::{any_over_type, contains_growing_type};
-use crate::types::{Type, UnionBuilder};
+use crate::types::typevar::{BoundTypeVarIdentity, TypeVarInstance, walk_type_var_bounds};
+use crate::types::visitor::{TypeCollector, TypeVisitor, walk_type_with_recursion_guard};
+use crate::types::{
+    IntersectionType, KnownInstanceType, RecursiveType, Type, TypeAliasType, UnionBuilder,
+};
+
+/// Return whether the outer type may be a tuple, without searching nested arguments or members.
+/// A recursion cutoff conservatively counts as a possible tuple.
+fn may_be_tuple<'db>(db: &'db dyn Db, env: &ProgramEnvironment<'db>, ty: Type<'db>) -> bool {
+    struct TupleShapeVisitor<'a, 'db> {
+        env: &'a ProgramEnvironment<'db>,
+        recursion_guard: TypeCollector<'db>,
+        active_types: ActiveRecursionDetector<TypeIdentity<'db>>,
+        may_be_tuple: Cell<bool>,
+    }
+
+    impl<'db> TupleShapeVisitor<'_, 'db> {
+        fn visit_guarded(&self, db: &'db dyn Db, ty: Type<'db>, visit: impl FnOnce()) {
+            self.active_types.visit(
+                &ty.to_type_identity(db),
+                || self.may_be_tuple.set(true),
+                visit,
+            );
+        }
+    }
+
+    impl<'db> TypeVisitor<'db> for TupleShapeVisitor<'_, 'db> {
+        fn program_environment(&self) -> &ProgramEnvironment<'db> {
+            self.env
+        }
+
+        fn should_visit_lazy_type_attributes(&self) -> bool {
+            false
+        }
+
+        fn visit_type(&self, db: &'db dyn Db, ty: Type<'db>) {
+            if self.may_be_tuple.get() {
+                return;
+            }
+
+            if ty.tuple_instance_spec(db, self.env).is_some() {
+                self.may_be_tuple.set(true);
+                return;
+            }
+
+            if matches!(
+                ty,
+                Type::Union(_)
+                    | Type::Intersection(_)
+                    | Type::TypeAlias(_)
+                    | Type::Recursive(_)
+                    | Type::NewTypeInstance(_)
+                    | Type::TypeVar(_)
+            ) {
+                walk_type_with_recursion_guard(db, ty, self, &self.recursion_guard);
+            }
+        }
+
+        fn visit_intersection_type(&self, db: &'db dyn Db, intersection: IntersectionType<'db>) {
+            for element in intersection.iter_positive(db) {
+                self.visit_type(db, element);
+            }
+        }
+
+        fn visit_type_alias_type(&self, db: &'db dyn Db, alias: TypeAliasType<'db>) {
+            self.visit_guarded(db, Type::TypeAlias(alias), || {
+                self.visit_type(db, alias.value_type(db));
+            });
+        }
+
+        fn visit_recursive_type(&self, db: &'db dyn Db, recursive: RecursiveType<'db>) {
+            self.visit_guarded(db, Type::Recursive(recursive), || {
+                self.visit_type(db, recursive.unfold(db, self.env).into_type());
+            });
+        }
+
+        fn visit_newtype_instance_type(&self, db: &'db dyn Db, newtype: NewType<'db>) {
+            self.visit_guarded(db, Type::NewTypeInstance(newtype), || {
+                walk_newtype_base(db, newtype, self);
+            });
+        }
+
+        fn visit_type_var_type(&self, db: &'db dyn Db, typevar: TypeVarInstance<'db>) {
+            self.visit_guarded(
+                db,
+                Type::KnownInstance(KnownInstanceType::TypeVar(typevar)),
+                || {
+                    if let Some(bounds) = typevar.bound_or_constraints(db, self.env) {
+                        walk_type_var_bounds(db, bounds, self);
+                    }
+                },
+            );
+        }
+    }
+
+    let visitor = TupleShapeVisitor {
+        env,
+        recursion_guard: TypeCollector::default(),
+        active_types: ActiveRecursionDetector::default(),
+        may_be_tuple: Cell::new(false),
+    };
+    visitor.visit_type(db, ty);
+    visitor.may_be_tuple.get()
+}
 
 /// Tracks the typevars of a collection to which tuple size promotion should **not** apply.
 #[derive(Default)]
@@ -35,8 +139,7 @@ impl<'db> TupleSizePromotionConstraints<'db> {
         }
     }
 
-    /// Records that a typevar is ineligible for tuple size promotion if the given type contains
-    /// a tuple type.
+    /// Block tuple size promotion if this type variable is assigned a possible tuple type.
     pub(crate) fn record_unpromotable_type(
         &mut self,
         db: &'db dyn Db,
@@ -73,12 +176,7 @@ impl<'db> TupleSizePromotionConstraints<'db> {
     ) -> bool {
         expression
             .is_some_and(|expression| Self::is_promotable_tuple_literal(db, env, expression, ty))
-            // An unbounded unfolding cannot establish the absence of annotated tuples.
-            // Preserve their lengths unless the complete finite scan permits promotion.
-            || (!contains_growing_type(db, env, ty)
-                && !any_over_type(db, env, ty, true, |ty| {
-                    ty.tuple_instance_spec(db, env).is_some()
-                }))
+            || !may_be_tuple(db, env, ty)
     }
 
     /// Returns true if the given expression is either a non-starred homogeneous tuple literal or the
diff --git a/crates/ty_python_semantic/src/types/typevar.rs b/crates/ty_python_semantic/src/types/typevar.rs
index 5d5ed0cc6d..aa2963c91b 100644
--- a/crates/ty_python_semantic/src/types/typevar.rs
+++ b/crates/ty_python_semantic/src/types/typevar.rs
@@ -2276,7 +2276,7 @@ pub enum TypeVarBoundOrConstraints<'db> {
     Constraints(TypeVarConstraints<'db>),
 }
 
-fn walk_type_var_bounds<'db, V: visitor::TypeVisitor<'db> + ?Sized>(
+pub(super) fn walk_type_var_bounds<'db, V: visitor::TypeVisitor<'db> + ?Sized>(
     db: &'db dyn Db,
     bounds: TypeVarBoundOrConstraints<'db>,
     visitor: &V,